Loot Drop Chance Calculator
Find your real odds of getting at least one drop across many attempts from a per-try drop rate, plus the tries needed for 50%, 90%, and 99% chances.
Each attempt is independent, so the odds of at least one drop in N tries are 1 minus the odds of striking out every single time: 1 − (1 − p)^N. A 1% drop over 100 tries is about 63%, not 100% — bad luck streaks are normal.
How it works
A drop rate is a per-attempt chance, and each attempt is independent — the game doesn't remember your last hundred failures. So the odds of getting at least one drop in N tries are 1 minus the odds of failing every single time: 1 − (1 − p)^N.
That formula explains a lot of pain. A 1% drop over 100 attempts isn't a guarantee — it works out to about 63.4%. You'd need well over 100 tries before the odds even reach 90%, which is why grinds feel so much longer than the percentage suggests.
Flip it around and the tool also tells you how many attempts you'd need for a 50%, 90%, or 99% chance of seeing the item at least once. It's a reality check before you commit to farming something rare.
Frequently asked questions
Why isn't a 1% drop guaranteed in 100 tries?
Because the chances multiply, they don't add. Each try independently misses 99% of the time, and 0.99 to the 100th power is about 0.366 — so there's still a 37% chance of nothing after 100 attempts, leaving roughly a 63% chance of at least one.
Does 'pity' or bad-luck protection change this?
Yes. Some games raise your odds after a dry streak or guarantee a drop at a threshold. This calculator assumes a flat, independent rate, so treat it as the baseline before any pity system kicks in.
What do the 50/90/99% numbers mean?
They're how many attempts you'd need for that probability of at least one drop. The jump from 90% to 99% is steep — chasing near-certainty always costs far more tries than getting to a coin-flip.